Pian Tsai Ying (600436) Company Research： Performance Growth Meets Expectations 2020 Expects Development to Speed Up
Pian Tsai Ying (600436) Company Research: Performance Growth Meets Expectations 2020 Expects Development to Speed Up
Event: The company released its 2019 annual results report, and its preliminary income for 2019 was 57.
45 trillion, +20 for ten years.
54%, net profit attributable to mother 13.
74 trillion, +20 for ten years.
24%, net profit after returning to mother 13.
6 billion, +21 per year.
01%, EPS is 2.
28 yuan / share, previously +20.
Performance growth was in line with expectations.
The company’s 19-year revenue and performance growth are in line with our previous expectations.
Separating 19Q4 separately, the company realized revenue of 14.
30,000 yuan, a growth rate of 18.
90%, achieve performance 2.
650,000 yuan, a growth rate of 18.
83%, the growth rate of non-attributed mothers was 17.
35%; compared with the first three quarters, the performance growth rate slightly decreased (19Q318.
7%), but within the normal fluctuation range.
It is expected that Pingzai’s core drugs will grow rapidly and the profit of cosmetics will increase.
According to the data disclosed by the company’s third quarterly report, the company’s Pianzai core medicines’ revenue growth in 2019 is expected to be between 22-23%, and domestic Pianzai income will maintain rapid growth; it is expected that the daily chemical cosmetics segment will achieve more than 30% revenue growth and the toothpaste business will turn aroundThe growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry, which is expected to increase profits, has declined: It is expected that the growth rate of pharmaceutical business scale will decline, and the growth rate of Q4 is close to Q3.
Pharmaceutical business revenue for the first three quarters of 20.
7 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.
6%, third quarter revenue 6.
Eight ten percent, an increase of 11 per year.
4%, the smallest business growth rate is obvious; the industry 淡水桑拿网 growth rate is expected to be sudden, the company ‘s revenue volume has increased rapidly for two consecutive years, and the base has become larger; Pianzi 癀 Xiamen Hongren ‘s growth rate in 2020 after the completion of the three-year performance commitment in 2017-19May return to 10-15% of regional faucet normal levels.
2020 expects the company’s development to accelerate again: We incorporated the recommendation logic of 2020 Pien Tze Huang in the weekly report of January 12, 2020. We believe that the logic of rising prices and prices of the Pian Tsai Chan series of drugs has not changed, and we expect that there will be another 3-5 years.10-20% price increase space, we see more than 4 billion in the middle of the sales scale; daily chemical cosmetics business enters the harvest period, the overall growth rate of the next 杭州夜生活网 three years efforts to maintain above 30%; the company’s marketing reform will continue to deepen and expand blank markets.
2020 is the year of the chairman’s re-election. In the in-depth report released on July 28, 2019, we analyzed that the chairman meets the conditions for re-election, and the probability of retention is contradictory. If the chairman is re-elected successfully, it will dispel market doubts.
The market price of natural bezoar increased from 15-20 million / kg to 400,000-500,000 / kg in 2017-2019. The impact on the cost of varieties has exceeded that of musk. The increase in cost pressure may prompt the company to raise the price of Pien Tze Huang.
Profit forecast: Regardless of the price increase factor, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent is expected to be 13 in 2019-2021.
30,000 yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 20.
5%, the current expected PE is 54/44 / 37X. If the price is raised, the 20-year and 21-year performance growth rate will reach 25-30%, corresponding to PE is about 42 / 34X, maintaining the “Buy” rating.
Risk reminders: Pian Tsai’s revenue growth rate declines; the increase in raw material prices leads to a decline in product gross margins; a series of possible changes that may lead to business changes.