Jinyu Group (601992) 2019 Interim Review: High cement profit expects real estate development
This report guides: H1 in the cement sector is highly prosperous, Q3 key projects are rushing and production is suspended in the summer to further improve the supply and demand pattern. Investment Highlights: Maintain “Overweight” rating.In 2019H1, the company’s revenue increased by 44.6 billion 26.14%, net profit attributable to mother 30.4.6 billion with an increase of 26.36%, cement business Jindong Jidong’s integration advantage performance, land use and land advantages developed steadily, maintaining the net profit of return to mother in 2019-202145.15, 49.48, 54.RMB 3.7 billion forecast, maintaining target price of 5.75 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level. The profitability of cement is expected to remain strong in the off-season.The sales volume of the cement clinker Q2 from Jidong caliber company 3113 was converted into the same increase of about 7%, the sales price per ton was about 360 yuan / ton, and the ring rose 38 yuan; the gross profit per ton was 142 yuan / ton, the ring rose 35 yuan, and the net profit per ton 74 yuanTons, the best profit level in history.The company’s core North China market scale has undergone large-scale production suspension in the summer. At the same time, the start of key projects has driven regional demand in the off-season, prices have increased against the market, and the profitability of the cement sector has remained 杭州桑拿 unchanged. The pace of real estate carry-over is stable, and sales are waiting for H2.2019H1 company real estate carry-over amount 111.500 million, an increase of 12.1%, the 2019 budget carry-over target is 23.5 billion US dollars. The overall rhythm is stable and in line with expectations, maintaining the goal of gradually and reasonably achieving the target.H1 company signed a contract amount of 93.8 ppm, a ten-year increase2.1%, real estate sales and sales peak season is concentrated in H2, the goal of reaching 35 billion goals compared to the earlier value of 2018 needs to increase by 60%, waiting for H2 concentrated efforts. “Infrequent” should be understood as “recurring”. New projects increase fair value loss gains.H1 attributed to the “non-recurring” changes in fair value of property assets of the mother’s net profit4.At 3.9 billion, the book value of the company’s property assets is low, and it is fair to increase at a stable pace every year. Therefore, it is actually a “recurring” income in the business sense. This part of the 2018H1 only contributed 2.400 million, the increase of 2019H1 comes from the “intelligent manufacturing factory” project started to enter the calculation. Risk warning: raw material cost risk, domestic monetary policy and real estate policy risk.